The Maths Behind Odds In Sports Betting
Most of the sport odds are calculated based on mathematics, simple maths, at least in most cases. When betting on a particular match, the odds are not calculated on the baised team to win, but rather on the team with the higher probability of winning that said match.
Let's take into example Newcastle vs Barcelona.
The odds are of course going to favour Barcelona side but this is not the result of Barca being a more loveable team, but rather due to how they are performing in contrast to Newcastle that their odds of winning are to be higher. Now this does not mean that Newcastle will 100% lose the game, but, they will have a higher risk of losing since there is a major skill gap between the two oppositions.
How is maths implemented into sport betting
The algorithms in the sport betting markets can get a bit complex to be explained in such a few words but, by knowing the fundamentals , calculating and evaluating the probabilities of the match, there will be a higher success rate for the bettors.
When one wants to place a bet on a particular match, the initial odds on a football game at least, will be Team A to win, Team B to win or a Draw. These are usually calculated by the Odds Compiler - who is usually employed by a bookmaker.
Let’s take this example -
This graph is representing that the home team will have a greater advantage/odds to win over the away team. If one is betting €10 units, then if 1 unit is placed on the home team to win, that unit will have a 1.71 multiplier, so in that case, there will be a return of €17.10. Same will be applied to the odds, if a unit is placed on a draw, then there will be a return of €41.00.
Though this was not an exact explanation on how the algorithms work, one can get a pretty clear idea on what is said and the foundations of the odds calculations.
The understanding of algorithms
Understanding these highly complex algorithms or at least knowing how they are, can really help the average bettor to rise in the ranks. To increase the chance of being successful. Although the maths is hard, a sharp bettor can always be ahead of the market curve, but that depends on the amount of dedication and studying one puts into. Hard work pays off. Most of the time, frequent bettors usually use algorithms and assistance from AI softwares such as a spreadsheet in order to assist them with the maths in order to bet a bit more accurately. This will obviously increase the chance of winning. With that said, human analysis is also a crucial method but with a little help from AI software and solid complicated algorithms will help you out extremely.
Of course, with all the maths and all the professionals, at the end of the day, no one can predict the future, therefore, there will come days where losing takes place but with the right mentality and great observation, the odds of winning might get higher.